Bitcoin is sometimes hard to describe outside of simply being a digital asset and alternative asset at the same time. And explaining its wild price gyrations, particularly on weekends and in the middle of the night, can also be difficult. But now that 2025 is well underway and international policies are clearly showing more strife than harmony — is Bitcoin finally becoming its own asset class that is decoupling from traditional assets?

In recent weeks, certain articles have pointed out that Bitcoin is really just another tech stock. This is of course patently false on the surface, but the broad “risk-on” correlation has been there. Bitcoin’s correlation to AI stocks and megacap tech stocks is far from a new realization. The iShares Bitcoin Trust (NASDAQ: IBIT) tracking spot Bitcoin prices and the Invesco QQQ (NASDAQ: QQQ) tracking the NASDAQ-100 have been quite correlated in 2025, although Bitcoin was the best-performing asset class with major ETFs behind it in 2024.

Tactical Bulls is looking at Bitcoin’s relevance in the market as its own asset class. This is certainly not a guarantee that Bitcoin will be the best asset class year after year, but it seems that Bitcoin may finally be ready to stand out as its own asset class. This is against major stock ETFs and against bond ETFs and bond funds. It is also being evaluated against China and US “risk-on” assets, and it is being evaluated against the safe-haven of gold and even against the more volatile silver and commodities.

There are many Bitcoin millionaires who will say that Bitcoin has already proven itself to be its own asset class. After all, they got rich as hell from it. But…

Bitcoin still has a lot to prove for its future. Then again, there is still incredibly strong demand even after it has sold off by 25% from its absolute highs. And that demand is holding up even as the financial markets are in a panic. Just keep in mind that Bitcoin doesn’t have to rise to $1 million just to prove itself as worthy of being its own assets class.

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STOCKS IN PANDEMIC PANIC!

April has brought a major drop in stocks in reaction to President Trump’s tariffs. Friday’s market panic was tied to the immediate retaliation from China to kick off the trade war. The sell-off crushed stocks, with a drop of 6.2% for the S&P 500 and a drop of 6.4% for the NASDAQ-100 on Friday alone. Almost every stock sold off:

• The Dow fell more than 2,200 points.
• Only 14 stocks in the S&P 500 and 1 of 30 DJIA stocks closed higher on Friday.
• 30 of the S&P 500 stocks fell 10% or more.
• Even defensive and safer dividend stocks were crushed.
• JPMorgan put the recession odds at 60%, and its own stock fell over 8% (-13% for the week!).
• Fed Funds futures pricing in 100 basis points of rate cuts in 2025.

In the end, stocks showed their worst week of performance since 2020’s pandemic as the S&P 500 was down 9.1% and the NASDAQ-100 was down 9.9% from the prior Friday. There were also 13 of the 30 DJIA stocks that closed down over 10% for the week:

• Boeing (BA) -21.19%
• Walt Disney (DIS) -14.83%
• NVIDIA (NVDA) -14.01%
• Chevron (CVX) -13.73%
• Apple (AAPL) -13.55%
• JPMorgan Chase (JPM) -13.41%
• Goldman Sachs (GS) -13.31%
• Caterpillar (CAT) -12.62%
• 3M (MMM) -12.38%
• American Express (AXP) -11.98%
• Amazon.com (AMZN) -11.27%
• Salesforce (CRM) -10.82%
• Cisco Systems (CSCO) -10.38%

CHINA

China felt the wrath of the markets as well. The iShares China Large-Cap ETF (NYSEArca: FXI) is the go-to ETF for the largest companies in the Chinese equity market that trade on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong and are available to international investors. The FXI fell 7% to $32.74 on Friday and the 160 million shares was 3-times normal volume. KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (NYSEArca: KWEB) fell 9.4% to $31.31 and its 70 million shares trading on Friday was about 2.5-times normal volume.

WHAT HAPPENED TO BONDS?

Surprisingly, the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (NYSEArca: BND) rose less than 0.1% as the massive drop in interest rates on Friday morning ended up being only a drop of 2-4 basis points in 2-year to 10-year Treasury notes. Apparently, the market digesting higher prices as a one-time inflation hit is trumping the instantly weakening economy. And Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell effectively said it is a “wait and see” time about interest rates as his comments pointed to weakening economic risks and higher prices stoking those “stagflation” fears. Most closed-end bond funds also closed with lower prices as the market was in disarray.

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AND WHAT ABOUT COMMODITIES?

The market chose the fear over relief that oil plummeted. The “CL1” front-month crude oil (WTI) fell 6.9% on Friday alone to $62.32. This means the markets are banking on a rapid decline in demand due to international economic weakness. Even natural gas prices (“NG1” in futures) fell 7.7% to $3.819 on Friday. So, what if a 7% decline in the price of oil and even larger drop in natural gas will translate to lower electricity and gas bills at home and cheaper gas prices for your cars and SUVs.

Copper is the metal that is supposed to rule the world as a leading indicator because just about everything that gets built seems to have copper in it. The CME showed that front-month copper (KGK5) closed down 9.1% at $4.388 on Friday. The Global X Copper Miners ETF (NYSE: COPX) fell 10.25% to $32.67 on Friday, and it is now down over 18% for the week and is down 14.5% year-to-date.

And to make matters worse for the ultimate insult, the ultimate safe haven of gold (priced in U.S. dollars) even sold off by 2.5% to about $3,036 per ounce. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (NYSEArca: GLD) fell 2.3% to $279.72. And silver lived up to the “Devil’s Metal” nickname as the iShares Silver Trust (NYSEArca: SLV) fell 6.3% to $27.08 in more than 3-times its normal trading volume.

BUT, AGAIN, WHAT ABOUT BITCOIN?

The price of Bitcoin rose on Friday. Even on Saturday Bitcoin’s weekend price was up 0.5% at $82,960 according to the Coinbase prices. It is as if Bitcoin is finally being viewed as the safe haven that many Bitcoin acolytes want and expect it to be. And while this may just be a one-day issue, Bitcoin is now up over the last week.

Bitcoin has no national allegiance nor any borders. Bitcoin has no central bank backing it up. Bitcoin trades 24/7/365. Bitcoin has no standing army to defend itself. Bitcoin’s price is based solely on the daily supply/demand for a maximum of 21 million BTC that will ever be issued… minus several million that are estimated to have been permanently lost or are now unrecoverable.

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Additional Bitcoin data per Coinbase as of Saturday morning:

• Bitcoin’s price has risen 0.46% in the past 24 hours and has also risen by 0.34% in the past week.
• The last 24-hour trading volume was $26.261 billion.
• Bitcoin is currently valued at 23.91% below its all-time high of $109,026.02.
• The current circulating Bitcoin supply is 19,847,062 BTC (of 21M max) with a total market cap of more than $1.64 trillion.

Friday’s financial market panic did not apply to Bitcoin. The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (NASDAQ: IBIT) rose 2.45% to $47.71 with trading volume about 50% higher than average trading days and $49.6 billion in assets. The Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (NASDAQ: FBTC) rose 2.57% to $73.39 on Friday with $17 billion in assets. The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (NYSEArca: GBTC) rose 2.4% to $66.32 with $16.8 billion in assets.

The ProShares Bitcoin ETF (NYSEArca: BITO), which tracks Bitcoin futures contracts rather than the spot price of Bitcoin, rose 2.7% to $18.31 on Friday. And even Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ: MSTR) managed to gain 4% to $293.61 on Friday when anything related to technology was gutted — and Strategy closed up 1.5% for the week and is up 1.4% year-to-date.

President Trump has pledged that the United States will be the world’s leader in cryptocurrency. This promise did not include a true “Strategic Reserve” similar to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, but the government is at least planning to hold the cryptocurrency (at least Bitcoin) as a reserve asset from coins it seizes from criminals or from coins forfeited in civil actions.

LOOKING FORWARD TO ITS OWN ASSET CLASS

In a world where geopolitical risk and financial markets are in panic, maybe Bitcoin is finally decoupling from its correlation to stocks and other “risk-on” assets. There needs to always be a reminder that you don’t even have to be a huge “Bitcoin Believer” to own exposure to Bitcoin — you just have to believe that more people want Bitcoin exposure and that more assets will chase Bitcoin in the future.

There is one question that every single investor should ask: What happens to the price of Bitcoin if even half of the 70 million (or so) millionaires in the world decide that they must own just a single Bitcoin when so much of Bitcoin is already held by very tight hands that may not have to care if stocks fall another 10% or more?

You were told above that Bitcoin does not have to run to $1 million per coin to be proven as its own asset class. It doesn’t even have to rise to $500,000 or even $250,000… and it doesn’t have to even rise to new all-time highs ever again to prove itself as its own asset class. It just has to keep having buyers in good times and in bad times.

Take a look at where the $1.6 trillion (or whatever the market cap is on any given day) compares to the list of nations by GDP on a purchasing power parity — currently between Poland and Saudi Arabia! Now we just all have to see what is in store for the rest of 2025… and beyond!