The media keeps insisting that the U.S. on the verge of a recession. The warnings are harsh, but they may be overlooking the most obvious point that roughly 70% of GDP is tied to consumer spending. And of that total consumer spending budget, the wealthy are responsible for almost half of all consumer spending. That impending 2025 recession may not yet be an inevitable outcome.

Tactical Bulls recalls all of the recession lights flashing that were flashing bright red in 2022. The media and the politicos would not admit that all of the warning bells were blaring. The key difference of media coverage in 2025 versus 2022 is that the political makeup of Washington D.C. has flipped and President Trump’s tariffs are fostering daily headlines of a trade war with China and many other nations. Make no mistake here — this certainly increases the odds of a recession on top of a slowing global economy. But, again, the wealthy population’s spending may actually prevent that recession from happening in 2025.

The harsh reality is that the wealthy aren’t calling it quits in the face of tariffs, a trade war, market volatility and even with recession odds on the rise. According to a Moody’s Analytics report earlier in 2025, the wealthiest 10% of U.S. households are considered to be around $250,000 and higher in income. That group is said to represent a whopping 49.7% of all consumer spending. That’s right, just 10% of households account for about half of all consumer spending!

One other interesting bit in Moody’s data was that post-inflation spending levels were up about 58% for the wealthy over the last four-year period. The bottom 80% of earners were seeing their spending up just about 25% from four years earlier, effectively more or less the same as the cumulative rate of inflation for that period.

WHAT SOME COMPANIES ARE SAYING

American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP) is known to cater to wealthier clients than most credit card companies. Their 6% profit gain in the first quarter of 2025 was tied to increased spending from their more affluent customer base. According to AmEx CEO Stephen Squeri — AmEx saw strong metrics in cardmember spending, credit performance, and in demand for its premium products. As a result, and despite ongoing macro-concerns, AmEx even maintained its full-year earnings and revenue guidance. The news was not strong enough to propel American Express shares to post a gain last week, but its stock was already down 15% so far in 2025 at the time versus a 10% drop for the broader S&P 500 Index.

Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) most recently noted that its card spending per household rose 1.1% in March on a year-over-year basis. Where it’s data look similar to AmEx is that they noted higher-income households are continuing to show stronger spending habits than lower-income households. And despite a post-earnings pop from prior days, BofA shares are still down about 15% year-to-date.

One additional issue about the economy that BofA pointed out was that tax refunds are slightly higher than last year. That said, tax refunds currently skew a little toward lower-income and middle-income households. That, in turn, may help keep consumer spending higher form lower and middle income households as well.

Jamie Dimon of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) has been much more cautious on his outlook of the economy. His latest conference call pegged “live recession odds” at 50-50. Dimon has been far more vocal about storm clouds and tsunamis on the broader economy for more than 2025, and so far the worst of the storms have yet to be seen.

Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE: GS) only caters to high-net-worth individuals and to institutional investors as the firm’s clients. Its earnings report was fine, but the Goldman Sachs Insights team has warned that the Trump Administration’s dramatic tariff moves have upended decades of U.S. trade policy. Their view is that this is creating a rapid reassessment of their U.S. and global economic outlook, and it is also creating a surge in tariff-induced recession fears. Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs Research’s chief economist, now expects a sizable tariff-induced U.S. GDP growth hit — and he now forecasts low U.S. growth and a 45% chance of recession within the next year.

DON’T IGNORE LUXURY & OTHER WARNINGS

There are still risks that the wealthier households here and abroad will not save the economy. Gucci and YSL parent Kering posted results showing a sharp drop in luxury goods demand. The firm Berenberg pointed out that luxury brand outlooks are facing a troubled view in the U.S. market and a slowdown in China.

There are many other warning signs that have been more than a concern. Airlines warn of weaker demand and are lowering capacity ahead. Car makers have significant tariff risks. Mortgage demand today is the lowest in a decade, and home sales are at a crawl. Even the defensive consumer products leaders have been posting weak earnings reports.

The surge in gold prices is not a welcome sign for jewelry makers. Gold hit fresh all-time highs after briefly hitting $3,500 per ounce in dollar terms. This was driven by a weaker dollar and panic in the markets, with many foreign investors continuing to dump U.S. stocks and bonds in favor of their own or other nations’ stocks and bonds. BofA has even warned about the end of American exceptionalism as a growing risk.

Is Bitcoin finally proving to be the alternative asset class it has been touted as for years?  Bitcoin was back at $95,000 at the time of this writing — up from $76,000 just in the first week of April. Some investors and speculators treat Bitcoin as digital gold. Just keep in mind that the greatest number of Bitcoins issued will never be above 21 million. The spot Bitcoin ETFs quickly took in over $100 billion in combined assets in 2024 alone. Satoshi is said to own close to 1 million Bitcoin. MicroStrategy, or Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) now holds over 500,000 Bitcoin and governments are known to hold about 300,000 or more Bitcoin. It has been estimated that well over 1 million Bitcoins (even as much as 3-4 million by some counts) have been lost or are unrecoverable. And exchanges and individuals are said to own 14 million or so Bitcoin. So, what happens if every one of the 70 million millionaires decide they have to own at least one Bitcoin?

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There should be at least some comfort that wealthy households are still continuing to spend money. This covers restaurants, apparel, travel and consumer goods. That said, many of the broader indicators covering these same items are showing risks. And simply looking at a few sources of data should not be good enough to stave off all those recession risks. No one should be that naive even when they remain positive.

There is another consideration if the top 10% are driving about 50% of all consumer spending and if their strong spending might be enough to prevent a recession in 2025. If the top 10% are fine and keeping spending up just enough, lower-income and middle-income households may be feeling their own recession individually even if that’s not what showing up in the broader economic numbers.