There is a small secret about the continual growth of the global economies. The economic models of today all require growth in the future years for successful planning. More output and even higher prices over time come into play. Higher wages and long lives also come into play. Perhaps the most important aspect is continued population growth. The global population will undoubtedly grow for several more decades, but… Before the end of this century the global population is projected to peak, and then begin to contract all in this century.

According to the World Population Prospects 2024 from the United Nations, the world’s population is likely to peak in this century. That is decade after decade and centuries of growth coming to an end. The end result is projected to be around 10.3 billion living people in the mid-2080s, versus about 8.2 billion people in 2024.

So, what the hell happens when decades and centuries of growth begin to turn into contraction?

Tactical Bulls wants to ensure that its readers have their own retirement security. For some of us, that retirement security also includes at least some planning for the next generation, or generations, as well. Historically we have all had the benefit of planning for the future where populations, economies prices, markets and housing have all gained. That is not likely to factor into future forecasts and models all that well.

Many factors have to be considered when making any broad economic and demographic projections decades into the future. Global pandemics and global wars are not actually baked into long-term forecasts. Neither are major economic shocks that can derail a decade of growth. Alien invasions are also not include din the metrics.

Some interesting big-buzz current issues also have to be considered. Look at some observations in the U.N.’s 60-plus page document here:

• “Immigration” is used 20 times, and it is expected to be the main driver of future growth for many areas.
• The phrase “climate change” is mentioned only once.
• “Crypto” has no mention at all.
• The phrase “artificial intelligence” is used only three times.
• “Automation” is used only three times.

It cannot be emphasized enough that economic models of today (and therefore long-term investing themes) generally have to have growth for the models to make economic sense. Another less-hidden secret about economic models is that populations of the future are expected to live as well as (or better than) the people living today.

The U.N. outlook for the population to peak at 10.3 billion people versus the 8.2 billion in 2024 will have little to no impact on half to two-thirds of the living population today. If you are fifty now, you would have to be 120 to even see it come to fruition. If you are 10 years of age now, you will likely have just entered retirement when the population peaks.

Now imagine planning on infrastructure, taxation, social safety nets, and so on that has to look over the next century. How will those plans change when economic models begin to forecast population contraction and long-term economic contraction (or stagnation)? Economists and governments might have to begin factoring in “this is as good as it’s ever going to get” into their models.

While the U.N.’s outlook is far from being set in stone. Long-term and futurist outlooks are dependent upon many issues, but the U.N.’s view is projecting an 80% probability in its World Population Prospects 2024 report. That’s quite a high probability to a skeptic who wonders what things today can change 60 years out into the future.

After peaking at 10.3 billion in 2084, the U.N.’s working paper projects that the global population should start to decline gradually. Their view is that the global population will fall to 10.2 billion people by the end of the twenty-first century. One consideration about forecasting, even with a stated 80% probability, the new population estimate for the year 2100 is about 700 million fewer people (about 6% lower) than the U.N.’s prior forecast just a decade earlier.

Several factors are projected into the peak-population estimates. Lower fertility rates, even in China. The U.N. also noted that 63 countries and areas today (with about 28% of the global population today) have already seen their populations peak prior to 2024 — China, Germany, Japan and the Russian Federation. And the populations in the areas where populations are already contracting are likely to see 14% contraction in just the next 30 years.

Another 48 countries and areas which account for 10% of the global population should see their populations peak between 2025 and 2054. Nations in this group are shown as Brazil, Iran, Turkey, and Vietnam. Another list of nations is still projected to see population growth averaging about 5.3% in the next 30 years.

The remaining 126 countries and areas are expected to see their populations keep growing over the next 30 years. This group of nations includes India, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Pakistan. Surprisingly, the United States was also forecast to keep increasing its population for the next 30 years. The U.N.’s trajectory of population change in the last group is expected to have a major influence on the size and timing of the global population peak.

Many factors will affect the future growth and ultimate contraction. Women have about one child less in a lifetime versus the start of the last century. The momentum created by growth in the past will be the main driver in the current century. Life expectancy is again rising after the COVID-19 pandemic.

Another consideration for today’s economic planners is that the nations with young populations today which also are showing lower fertility rates should expect to have only a limited time to enjoy the economic benefits with a rising concentration of their population being in the working ages. And if this projection for the year 2080 is not a stark reminder about the future of aging trends then nothing else is — people who are 65 years and older will outnumber children under 18 by 2080.

How our planet looks by that time is still a strong consideration. It is not hard to fathom that many governments leading the planet now may even look and different than they do today. And if all goes as planned, my own children today will have recently entered their expected retirement age by the time 2084 comes to pass.

Before you panic, there is a long time before this forecast will matter directly to you. If you have young children, it’s likely going to matter to them — and it will definitely matter to their kids.