Rigel Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: RIGL) may be too small for some investors to consider as a tactical investor play. Even valued under $1 billion, its stock is a fraction versus the pre-2010 era. What deserves a review is that this biotech stock has risen 100% during the month of August/2025 alone.

One key issue to consider about this 100% gain in less than a month is that it wasn’t only from one or two days of big jumps on news. There have been some big one-day jumps, but as of August 18 the stock has risen every single day of the month — and what had been normal trading volume of 100,000 to 200,000 shares has seen an exponential volume spike with average for the month of more than 1 million shares per day. And its news flow since guidance in early August has been quiet.

It would seem to be very normal to expect some profit taking, although whether that occurs or not remains to be seen. After all, this surge is a high not seen in more than 3 years — and its stock price had been $200+ stock back in 2008. Is something else at work here outside of normal trader and investor speculation in biotechs?

IS WALL STREET OBJECTIVE STILL?

Citi raised its target to $55 from $49 with a Buy rating in place back in March and has since raised that target to $67. Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated its Neutral rating after its guidance but still raised its target to $32 from $23 on August 8. And H.C. Wainwright has a Buy rating and $57 price target.

Citi’s call back in March was very positive compared to most other firms at the time. On top of quietly and deliberately building a solid commercial franchise over the past three years, the firm had several other positives:

• Tavalisse, Rezlidhia and the more recently acquired Gavreto as a group of drugs were near $200 million in collective sales for 2025.
• Citi pointed out that its business alone supports a valuation of $45 per share (even higher now).
• Rigel’s pipeline was also showing “many interesting features” for future product revenues.

The website Simply Wall St. pointed out on August 13 that Rigel’s earnings are of questionable quality, with its own analysis suggesting shareholders may be missing some factors that indicate the earnings result was not as good as it looked – notably that its earnings were not supported by free cash flow.

THE BIG PICTURE

Several additional items stand out about Rigel’s incredible stock gains.

Wall Street’s side bets are mute… Its options volume currently has hardly anything in the open interest for September, October and December. Rigel’s short interest of 2.5 million shares as of the end of July also doesn’t seem incredible even if it had represented 14 days to cover at the time when trading volume was lower. More recent short interest data is still not available, but it should be telling where Wall Street hedgers and naysayers are putting their money.

It’s growing, but what about 2026… Rigel’s total revenue was $179.2 million in 2024, up over 50% from the $116.9 million in 2023. Analysts are calling for revenue of $281.1 million in 2025 and $270 million in 2026.

Guidance… When the company raised 2025 revenue guidance in early August, Rigel also noted that it expects positive net income in 2025 after net income of $59.6 million in Q2-2025. Perhaps the one exception worth noting was that its total revenue and net income in Q2 included $40 million in non-cash contract revenue related to Rigel’s agreement with Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE: LLY).

A focus on Eli Lilly… As for what to expect from Lilly, Rigel had notified Eli Lilly in April that it would not exercise its opt-in right related to the development and commercialization of ocadusertib (previously R552) for the treatment of non-central nervous system (CNS) diseases. The company said:

As a result of the notification, Rigel recognized $40.0 million in non-cash revenue resulting from the release of the remaining cost share liability in the second quarter. Per the agreement with Lilly, Rigel will continue to be entitled to receive milestone and tiered royalty payments on future net sales of ocadusertib and the companies’ CNS penetrant program.

Its pipeline… Rigel also continues to advance its Phase 1b clinical study of R2891 as a novel and selective dual interleukin receptor-associated kinases 1 and 4 (IRAK1/4) inhibitor in patients with relapsed or refractory (R/R) lower-risk myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS). Its full pipeline data are available here.

Cancer data… And at the 2025 American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) annual meeting, Rigel’s presentations included final data from the GAVRETO (pralsetinib) Phase 1/2 ARROW study in RET fusion-positive non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and other solid tumors. It also showed supportive data for REZLIHDIA (olutasidenib) in patients with mutated isocitrate dehydrogenase-1 (mIDH1) relapsed or refractory (R/R) acute myeloid leukemia (AML).

It seems to have enough cash… Rigel’s cash and cash equivalents was measured at $108.4 million as of June 30, 2025, versus $77.3 million as of December 31, 2024. With a forecast of approximately $210 million to $220 million in net product sales (up over 10% from a prior forecast), its contract revenues from collaborations were forecast at approximately $60 million from its prior range of approximately $15 to $18 million.

And it’s still tiny… The standout issue for many investors is that Rigel’s market cap with a $41 share price is approximately $735 million. That’s after its stock closed at $21.06 at the end of July.

NOW WHAT?

Tactical Bulls would normally have already expected some profit taking, that (surprisingly) hasn’t happened as of August 18. Where this stock goes from here is anyone’s guess. Be advised that Tactical Bulls has no formal ratings nor any formal price target estimates of its own on Rigel Pharmaceuticals. The analyst data above has been assigned to each firm by name.