If investors saw that the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down for 9 consecutive trading days, they might think the next stock market crash was here. The problem is that this isn’t 1985 any longer. The Dow is an antiquated stock price-weighted index when all other relevant indexes are market cap-weighted. In every way but historical references to “the market” it is the S&P 500 Index that is now the true “market” for modern investors.

Seeing a 9-day drop is not the norm. Not at all, and it cannot be ignored entirely. And this appears to be the first time since 1978 where the Dow has fallen 9 days in a row. That doesn’t sound like much of a Santa Claus rally, but… The S&P 500 was last seen still up barely, even after a 0.6% drop this day; and the NASDAQ-100 is still up 2.7% over the last week despite a 0.6% drop this day.

The last reported Dow price of 43,347 is down from the Dow’s recently printed all-time high of 45,073 from December 4, 2024. And a 9-day streak is not pleasant for investors, but it’s only a drop of 3.8% even after a 350+ point drop as of this time on December 17, 2024.

Can the market fall further? Absolutely! Does the market have to rise tomorrow, or ever, from the recent peaks? Absolutely not!

There are many things at work, but before you panic and reach for the Depends just keep in mind that the major equity indexes have all been hitting record highs almost every week since the election. These markets are in overbought territory. Frankly, any pullbacks should be expected. They may even be cheered by those who missed the gains since early November as a chance to get in.  The Dow’s 2024 gain was last seen as 15% YTD, significantly lagging the gains of 27% for the S&P 500 and an even stronger 30% gain for the tech-dominated NASDAQ-100.

While the Federal Reserve is expected to deliver one more rate cut (this week), the reality is that markets are now bracing for relatively very few rate cuts in 2025. Major strategists on Wall Street are calling for gains of 8% to 10% for 2025.

First and foremost, the unfortunate news around the CEO assassination of UnitedHealth Group, Inc. (NYSE: UNH) has led UnitedHealth as the biggest laggard in the last two weeks. Its stock has plunged from over $600 down to $480 on last look. UNH’s drop has contributed over half of the Dow’s decline since that horrible news broke. This represents more than a 20% loss for UNH and it had been the highest weighting of the 30 Dow stocks. The loss in UNH stock has been 15% alone in just the last week. Its weighting in the Dow is now 7.1% versus about 8.5% before the CEO’s death.

In the last week, 10 of the Dow’s 30 components are up and 20 are down. That’s considered bad breadth, but if it was a real crash or a major blow-off top then it might be more like 27 of the 30 (or all 30) in the red. And for the last month, 16 of the 30 Dow stocks are still positive.

The last week has been rough on some of the Dow’s biggest names.

NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) is seeing some significant year-end profit taking. The AI-leader was down about 4% in the last week at $130 most recently and down 8.5% in the last month. That is now down over 10% (now 15%) into full “correction mode” from November’s all-time high of $152.89. Most analysts on Wall Street keep telling clients not to worry and the consensus analyst price target at Finviz is now up to $173.65. Before you accuse this of being blasphemy — a rotation out of NVIDIA and into other great stocks with lower valuations might actually be a good thing for the market ahead.

Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) was last seen down 6% in the last week and down 8% over the last month. With supply already above demand, there are worries that the “Drill baby, drill!” mentality with lower regulations under the Trump administration will only make supply even higher than demand in 2025. Now tack on concerns over a trade war in tariffs, potentially less geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East, and a sluggish global economy. And China’s stimulus is not currently believed to fix is continued economic weakness entirely. Chevron only has a 2.1% weighting in the Dow and BofA recently named it the top major energy pick for 2025.

Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) is also down 3.5% in the last week alone, but that is down just 2.4% in the last month. Caterpillar has some obvious trade war concerns if China and other nations reciprocate, and the current $375 share price is barely under the Finviz consensus target price of $383.89. It may not help that the last two major analyst moves were big downgrades: Morgan Stanley (to Underweight and $332 target) and Evercore ISI (Underperform and $365 target). Still, Jefferies recently named it a top pick for 2025 and raised its target to $475 from $455; and more recent price target hikes from Citi ($460) and JPMorgan ($515) do stand out against the negative calls. It has a 5.3% weighting in the Dow.

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Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) has been one of the other biggest losers in the Dow of late. It was around $325 on election day in November and it is now at $266. This stock is down 7.7% YTD, but the performance is -3.6% in the last week and -6% over the last month. That’s really a drop of about 20% since the election. It may not help that BofA recently resumed coverage as Underperform with a $256 price objective. And even since the November election, Wolfe Research and Citigroup both issued the equivalent of Neutral ratings in new coverage. Amgen is said to face upcoming patent expirations, and it is losing its “obesity premium” with other drugs already on the market. Amgen is also probably not going to be a big fan of “DOGE” looking at drug costs in its quest to lower government spending waste. Amgen’s 3.75% weighting is above the median theory of 3.33%, but it alone is not generally capable of crushing the Dow.

The Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) may feel like a surprise loser on the surface. While it is still up close to 5% from the election, it has fallen 3.75% in the last week. Maybe an additional Fed rate-cut will look like a lot of help, but the housing market faces severe issues that will remain as long as high interest rates remain in place over 2025. Home Depot also comes with tariff risks as many of its products are manufactured in China. At $406 now, down from $430 just last week, the Finviz consensus analyst price target is about $437. It has a 5.77% weighting in the Dow.

Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ) has also been a loser on the Dow with a loss of 10% since the end of November. Fortunately, its $40 share price makes it almost irrelevant to any major Dow move. And if you are indeed worried about it in 2025, at least you get a 6%-plus dividend yield and analysts have a consensus price target of $46.86. Verizon’s weight in the Dow is barely 0.5%.

It’s not all turds and birds for the Dow. Here are some of the best performing Dow stocks in the last week and lately:

Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) up 2.7% last week, up 14% last month.

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) up 2% in last week, up 12% over last month.

Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) up 5.5% in last week, up 23% over last month.

Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) up 2.3% in last week, up 9% in last month.

Walmart, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) is up less than 1% in the last week, but up over 12% last month.

Tactical Bulls does not maintain formal ratings or formal price targets on any of the stocks and indexes mentioned in this report. How each investor and reader interpret this information is solely their responsibility. None of the information is considered to be investment advice, nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any of the stocks and indexes in this report. Any decision to buy or sell equities involves risks and that decision should be made with a financial advisor. Information has been taken from sources deemed reliable but Tactical Bulls does noy guarantee the information that was used in the report.